Mathematical modelling

Mathematical modelling uses mathematical language to describe the way a system changes

Mathematical models begin with a mechanistic understanding of a system, for example the transmission of an infectious disease, such as COVID-19. Initially, the aim is for the model to retrospectively reproduce what has been observed in the system. In the case of COVID-19, this could involve using a mathematical model to reproduce the epidemic waves of COVID-19 observed during the pandemic. Once the model can accurately reproduce the existing data, it can then be used prospectively, to make predictions about what might happen in future scenarios of interest. For example, mathematical models can be used to predict the potential impact of a new COVID-19 variant with a given set of characteristics.
 
The mathematical modelling process, especially if it is combined with statistical and economic modelling, can lead to novel insights into existing data and help in developing projections for both the health and economic impacts of any new interventions.